Elliott Wave InternationalmyEWISocioniomics.Net

The Smell of Tulips is in the Air on Wall Street
All manias end below where they started.

By Bob Stokes
4/23/2013 4:45:00 PM

Tulip prices in Holland skyrocketed in the 1630s. A farmhouse was reportedly purchased with three bulbs in 1633. But the peak of Tulip Mania came in the winter of 1636-37 when someone refused to pay top dollar. Is the U.S. stock market a modern day parallel? Learn why the day may be near when one seller and one buyer agree that prices are too high.

Filed Under: bloomberg, Elliott Wave Theorist, history, mania, market crash, South Sea Bubble, stock indexes, wisdom of crowds

Category: Stocks


Investors Pile $61 Billion into Stocks (But Look Who's Selling)
Technology executives sell shares at a record pace.

By Bob Stokes
4/12/2013 4:00:00 PM

A financial professional recently opined on television that "You have to be in this market." Investors beat him to the punch. They've piled $61 billion into stock funds and ETFs so far in 2013. Inflows are on track to be the largest since 2000. But not everyone is buying. Learn about one group that's been selling at a frantic pace.

Filed Under: buy and hold, Elliott Wave Theorist, herding, investor psychology, mania, sentiment, U.S. STOCK MARKET

Category: Stocks


U.S. Stock Buyers: Beware the Pitfalls of Trend Extrapolation
Change is the only constant in life

By Bob Stokes
3/11/2013 5:30:00 PM

Most people tend to extrapolate today's trends into tomorrow. The irony is that when the crowd reaches a consensus about a trend, that's when it's likely to change. For example, when most everyone agrees that a championship sports team can do no wrong, it usually marks the time when the team's fortunes start to turn south.

Filed Under: Elliott wave, history, mania, Robert Prechter, sentiment, stock indexes, wisdom of crowds

Category: Stocks


Stock Market Lesson: "Institutional Investors Say a Crash Can't Happen"
Even professional investors can be radically wrong

By Bob Stokes
2/4/2013 4:45:00 PM

Even those who head large financial institutions can be way off the mark with financial assessments. That was the case around the 1929 stock market top and other historical market milestones. Market history may repeat as prominent Wall Street figures sing from the same songbook. Learn why it's an important time to be an independent-minded investor.

Filed Under: 1929 Stock Market Crash, CNBC, Elliott wave, financial forecast, herding, history, investor psychology, mania, market crash, market forecasts, mutual funds, risk management, sentiment, U.S. STOCK MARKET, Wall Street

Category: Stocks


High-End Real Estate: "The Market is Insane, I've Never Really Seen Anything Like It."
What's ahead for the re-inflation of real estate?

By Bob Stokes
1/25/2013 3:30:00 PM

Second chances don't always present themselves in financial markets. And when opportunities to recoup losses do appear, the psychology of the moment may stop people from taking beneficial actions. Consider the stock market and the recent surge in high-end real estate prices.

Filed Under: CNBC, economic indicators, Elliott wave, herding, home sales, housing prices, investor psychology, mania, stock indexes

Category: U.S. Economy


Higher Education: A New Bubble Chapter in the History Books
The education deflation has just started

By Bob Stokes
1/11/2013 3:30:00 PM

Today's higher-education bubble started when attending college became the rule instead of the exception. These days it's common to see magazine cover headlines like "The 25 Best Universities" or other types of university rankings. All the while, tuition costs have soared, and so has the availability of federal student loans. Now there's evidence that a remarkable sea change may be underway.

Filed Under: all the same market theory, debt crisis, deflation, economic depression, Elliott wave, financial forecast, history, long-term trend, mania, unemployment

Category: U.S. Economy


New Year's Euphoria and the Dow Industrials Breakout That Bombed
Will stock market history repeat itself?

By Bob Stokes
1/3/2013 4:45:00 PM

New Year's stock market euphoria is not emanating from the financial fringe. Recent headlines indicate that top-tier Wall Street firms are "all-systems go" on stocks. Fiscal fear among the financial establishment is conspicuously absent. EWI's publications put this market optimism into thought-provoking historical perspective.

Filed Under: Elliott wave, history, investor psychology, mania, market forecasts, Short Term Update, technical analysis, U.S. STOCK MARKET, wisdom of crowds

Category: Stocks


The Expected Housing Recovery Faces a Brick Wall
Re-emergent house flippers are set to flop.

By Bob Stokes
12/4/2012 4:00:00 PM

Two years before the housing bust became painfully obvious to U.S. homeowners, EWI's publications warned subscribers that the housing market had reached extremes and was about to bust.  Now, lofty expectations for home prices have returned. So have house "flippers." Is it different this time? Is it safe again to speculate in U.S. real estate?

Filed Under: deflation, economic indicators, home sales, housing prices, Magazine Cover Indicator, mania, subprime lending

Category: U.S. Economy


How to Use Investors' Collective Unconscious to Anticipate Stock Market Trends
Learn the steps human beings go through when they're part of an investment crowd

By Bob Stokes
11/12/2012 4:15:00 PM

Peaks and troughs in investor psychology have repeated throughout the stock market's history. Investors who can recognize the current trend for what it is are the best prepared to anticipate and benefit from its eventual reversal. So the question becomes, how do you recognize the current trend for what it is?

Filed Under: Elliott wave, herding, history, investor psychology, mania, market forecasts, Robert Prechter, U.S. STOCK MARKET, wisdom of crowds

Category: Stocks


The Psychology of a Market Top: How Bernard Baruch Kept His Millions
Market psychology is at a historic inflection point

By Bob Stokes
10/5/2012 2:30:00 PM

Legendary investor Bernard Baruch described the months before the 1929 crash, and explained why he knew it was time to sell. Learn why the psychology that produces a historic market turn may be at work now. 

Filed Under: 1929 Stock Market Crash, CNBC, Elliott wave, financial forecast, herding, history, investor psychology, mania, market forecasts, U.S. STOCK MARKET, wisdom of crowds

Category: Stocks


Prechter: "Every Mania Ends Below the Starting Point."
Who has the odds in the bull vs. bear battle?

By Bob Stokes
9/13/2012 5:45:00 PM

Manias have developed many times in the history of financial markets. No matter in which country or period in history the financial manias occurred, they all have had one thing in common...
 

Filed Under: 1929 Stock Market Crash, Bear market, Bob Prechter, bull market, economic depression, Elliott wave, financial forecast, history, mania, Nasdaq Composite, Nikkei, sentiment, Short Term Update, stock indexes

Category: Stocks


Triple Top in the Stock Market: Why Bears Love This Formation
The waiting game may soon be over

By Bob Stokes
9/10/2012 5:45:00 PM

The Dow Industrials have more than doubled since that low, and is now within a thousand points of its October 2007 all-time high. Stock market bears have had to exercise the proverbial patience of Job. Will the waiting game soon be finally over? Well, let's recall a few simple facts...
 

Filed Under: all the same market theory, Bear market, Elliott wave, mania, market forecasts, S&P 500, Short Term Update, technical analysis

Category: Stocks


Warning Sign for the Economy: An Indicator With a History of Calling Major Turns
Why "Easy Street" may soon face a bunch of sinkholes

By Bob Stokes
8/20/2012 3:45:00 PM

Porters and ladies' maids were splurging on their own carriages just before the bursting of the South Sea Bubble. And luxury spending went into high-gear during the 1920s, just before the Great Depression. Excess consumption has been around in one form or another for a long time. And that includes today. Despite a weak economic rebound since the 2007-2009 financial crisis, the demand for luxury is strong. Previous economic cycles show that an aggressive quest for luxury arrives...
 

Filed Under: 1929 Stock Market Crash, cultural trends, deflation, economic depression, economic indicators, Elliott wave, great depression, history, mania, market crash, South Sea Bubble, wisdom of crowds

Category: U.S. Economy


S&P 500: We've Seen a Pullback, But...?
Should we expect more?

By Bob Stokes
4/9/2012 4:45:00 PM

Some market participants are saying that the correction may have a little more to go, yet they also think a pullback will be shallow and the market will soon continue its climb. In other words: the quotes above represent the language and market sentiment of the 1990s. We know how that decade turned out...

Filed Under: Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), financial forecast, history, investor psychology, mania, Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, sentiment, Short Term Update

Category: Stocks


Bubble, Bubble: Stocks in Trouble?
400 years of history show: AFTER a mania, prices fall lower than they were BEFORE it

By Bob Stokes
3/21/2012 4:00:00 PM

It's easy to say you'll get out before the bubble bursts -- but there's always someone saying "stocks have more to run," or "this pullback is healthy for stocks"... in other words, "tulips are headed even higher"...

Filed Under: Bear market, CNBC, deflation, herding, history, mania, market crash, Robert Prechter, sentiment, stock indexes, technical indicators

Category: Stocks


The Real Estate Crash: How to Survive and Prosper
Commercial real estate and the skyscraper boom/bust: Deflation has a long way to go.

By Bob Stokes
1/10/2012 5:15:00 PM

It's time to learn specific steps on how to financially protect yourself before the economy sinks even deeper into a deflationary depression. Indeed, you can even position yourself to prosper in the months ahead. How?...

Filed Under: Club EWI, commercial real estate, conquer the crash, deflation, foreclosures, mania

Category: Real Estate


Gold: "Resting" Before the Next Big Run?
What happened to $5,000 gold prices?

By Bob Stokes
12/9/2011 5:15:00 PM

When gold traded below $300 a decade ago, few investors were interested. Now that prices have quintupled, there are countless gold bulls -- even with the precious metal off its high. The Elliott wave pattern of gold prices is signaling a timely message... 

Filed Under: Elliott wave, Gold, mania, precious metals, Robert Prechter, silver

Category: Gold and Silver


See How an Investment Can Lose 90% -- Over and Over
It Happens Time and Again When Manias Reach Their Ends

By Bob Stokes
7/27/2011 5:15:00 PM

A few who take the first "bath" realize that it's time to get out. But many "hang on" all the down. Some will try to catch the bottom -- repeatedly. But to their dismay, the price keeps falling...
 

Filed Under: buy and hold, Citigroup, Fannie Mae, mania, risk management, stock indexes, trading lessons

Category: Stocks


Financial Bubbles May Not Be Rational but You Can Still Forecast Them
Investors are herding ALL THE TIME, not just in bubbles and crashes -- Prechter's socionomics shows you why and how

By Editorial Staff
5/13/2011 11:45:00 AM

According to socionomics, investors are herding all the time, not just in bubbles and crashes. The agents involved are a homogeneous group. Under the socionomic model, there are no investors vs. traders, technicians vs. fundamentalists, or smart money vs. dumb money. Differences among participants are quantitative, not qualitative, as some people herd sooner or more intensely than others. Although some investors may be smarter than others, in the end everyone herds to some degree.

Filed Under: Bear market, bull market, herding, investor psychology, mania, Robert Prechter, socionomics

Category: Classic Prechter


Current Echoes of the Old Mania
EWI's May Financial Forecast reveals whether these familiar notes are the sounds of a new bull market

By Nico Isaac
5/11/2011 12:15:00 PM

In the decade leading to the end of the Great Asset Mania in 2007, a rising tide of credit expansion drove many major financial market trends in remarkable harmony. Yet in 2009 this correlation seemed to diverge: stocks, precious metals, and oil moved contra-cyclically. But today, the trend in those markets is aligned once again.

Filed Under: bull market, credit crisis, Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), gold futures, mania, market forecasts, mutual funds, New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), silver, U.S. dollar, U.S. Treasuries, unemployment, Wall Street

Category: Stocks


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The Elliott Wave Principle is a detailed description of how financial markets behave. The description reveals that mass psychology swings from pessimism to optimism and back in a natural sequence, creating specific Elliott wave patterns in price movements. Each pattern has implications regarding the position of the market within its overall progression, past, present and future. The purpose of Elliott Wave International’s market-oriented publications is to outline the progress of markets in terms of the Wave Principle and to educate interested parties in the successful application of the Wave Principle. While a course of conduct regarding investments can be formulated from such application of the Wave Principle, at no time will Elliott Wave International make specific recommendations for any specific person, and at no time may a reader, caller or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended. Investing carries risk of losses, and trading futures or options is especially risky because these instruments are highly leveraged, and traders can lose more than their initial margin funds. Information provided by Elliott Wave International is expressed in good faith, but it is not guaranteed. The market service that never makes mistakes does not exist. Long-term success trading or investing in the markets demands recognition of the fact that error and uncertainty are part of any effort to assess future probabilities. Please ask your broker or your advisor to explain all risks to you before making any trading and investing decisions.