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Bullish Sentiment Makes National Front Page News
What magazine covers say about sentiment.

By Bob Stokes
5/31/2013 5:00:00 PM

Paul Montgomery's magazine cover sentiment indicator applies to various financial assets: stocks, gold, real estate, oil, bonds, etc. Sentiment indicators provide useful insights into the market. But you also need to know about the market's technical indicators. Both are sending an urgent message. 

Filed Under: CNBC, Elliott wave, Magazine Cover Indicator, mania, sentiment, technical analysis, U.S. STOCK MARKET

Category: Stocks


Initial Public Offerings of 2013 Meet the Manias of 2007 and 1929
IPOs are set to raise the most money since 2007.

By Bob Stokes
5/13/2013 5:00:00 PM

How can you tell when stock market optimism has turned "fervent"?  One historically sure sign is that a rush of companies go public. The year 1999 was a perfect example. Large numbers of Internet companies with zero revenue went public. The fervor didn't last, as you may recall. 2007 was also a busy year for IPOs -- and another major market top. Now consider the IPO levels of 2013.

Filed Under: 1929 Stock Market Crash, Elliott wave, investor psychology, risk appetite, Robert Prechter, sentiment, stock indexes

Category: Stocks


As with "Madame Deficit," Heads May Roll During the Next Economic Crisis
The blame game will get serious.

By Bob Stokes
5/6/2013 5:15:00 PM

Marie Antoinette had been a spendthrift early in her reign, but curtailed that habit when she learned what the public thought. Even so, the young French queen had already been nicknamed "Madame Deficit." French debt had ballooned before she and King Louis XVI took the throne. But they received the blame for France's financial straits. Now fast forward to the U.S. economy today. Get ready for the blame game to turn serious.

Filed Under: deficit, economic indicators, Elliott wave, europe, history, Robert Prechter, sentiment, social mood, Sovereign Debt

Category: U.S. Economy


U.S. Markets and the Transition from Greed to Fear
Prechter: "When this piper gets paid, it's going to be an awesome sight."

By Bob Stokes
4/16/2013 5:45:00 PM

Measuring market greed versus market fear can provide a useful tool for gauging investor sentiment. EWI looks at investor sentiment as well as the market's momentum and price pattern. Altogether, they provide a valuable perspective on whether greed or fear will prevail in the future. Robert Prechter offers his perspective on the market's current juncture.

Filed Under: Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), Elliott wave, history, market crash, Robert Prechter, sentiment, VIX, Wall Street

Category: Stocks


Investors Pile $61 Billion into Stocks (But Look Who's Selling)
Technology executives sell shares at a record pace.

By Bob Stokes
4/12/2013 4:00:00 PM

A financial professional recently opined on television that "You have to be in this market." Investors beat him to the punch. They've piled $61 billion into stock funds and ETFs so far in 2013. Inflows are on track to be the largest since 2000. But not everyone is buying. Learn about one group that's been selling at a frantic pace.

Filed Under: buy and hold, Elliott Wave Theorist, herding, investor psychology, mania, sentiment, U.S. STOCK MARKET

Category: Stocks


A Perspective on a Forecast for Dow 18,000
Sound financial decisions are based on sound analysis.

By Bob Stokes
4/10/2013 5:00:00 PM

People who only consider the short-term – or hold an overly narrow point of view – can benefit from the advice to "put things into perspective." Because without perspective, we're certain to repeat the same short-sighted decisions, one after another. In his latest Elliott Wave Theorist, Robert Prechter puts the stock market's price pattern into proper perspective. The issue starts with the title, "More Amazing Charts."

Filed Under: Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), Elliott Wave Theorist, home sales, investment decisions, Robert Prechter, sentiment

Category: Stocks


20 Sentiment Measures Show Extreme Optimism for US Stocks

By Editorial Staff
4/2/2013 1:15:00 PM

Investor sentiment is a double-edged sword. It can be a fast-moving target with fleeting predictive value, but when several sentiment measures align, watch out!

Filed Under: Elliott Wave Theorist, financial forecast, Robert Prechter, sentiment

Category: Stocks


NASDAQ's 15% Drop in 2000: a Snapshot of Market History or a Picture of its Future?
Is increased stock market volatility just ahead?

By Bob Stokes
3/27/2013 5:15:00 PM

From March to April 2000, the NASDAQ declined 15%. Many investors bought the dip in the months after the peak, but it was only the beginning of a larger decline. In the 2000-2002 price plunge, the technology-heavy index lost a whopping 78%. Do investors today have a similar mindset to the prevailing market psychology of 2000? Recent sentiment measures say "Yes."

 

Filed Under: Bear market, buy and hold, Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), Elliott Wave Theorist, financial forecast, history, investor psychology, market crash, Nasdaq Composite, Robert Prechter, sentiment, VIX, volatility

Category: Stocks


Two Big Names Give 'Thumbs Up' to the Stock Market
Plus, a former bear switches camps

By Bob Stokes
3/20/2013 4:45:00 PM

When it comes to reaching a large audience, few voices can compete with the U.S. Secretary of the Treasury, or with the former Chairman of the Federal Reserve. One of each has recently given their blessing to the stock market. Many investors will be assured by these bullish comments from well-known people. Yet it's fair to ask whether today's extreme bullish market sentiment -- after a four-year rally -- should perhaps startle market participants. Indeed, the evidence suggests that this juncture in the financial markets is so rare that no living market participant has ever experienced a time like it.

Filed Under: 1929 Stock Market Crash, CNBC, Elliott wave, history, investor psychology, sentiment, U.S. STOCK MARKET

Category: Stocks


The Biggest Part of the Economy Could Be Headed for a Cool Down
Consumer confidence drops to its lowest level since December 2011

By Bob Stokes
3/15/2013 4:15:00 PM

If you notice fewer shoppers at the mall, fewer buyers on the car lot, fewer patrons at restaurants and fewer movie goers in coming days and months, don't be surprised. Why? The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary sentiment index for March fell to its lowest level since December 2011. Learn what else the latest consumer sentiment data may suggest.

Filed Under: bloomberg, conquer the crash, consumer confidence, consumer spending, deflation, economic indicators, Elliott Wave Theorist, financial forecast, sentiment, social mood

Category: U.S. Economy


It's True Love for the Dow Industrials
Will stock market bulls suffer a broken heart?

By Bob Stokes
3/14/2013 4:30:00 PM

Most stock market investors are head over heels for the Dow. Even though the market has already trended higher for four years, market participants believe prices have more room to climb. Some investors are prepared to embrace equities even if prices decline. Extreme market sentiment (bullish or bearish) usually indicates that the crowd has already acted. Yet, sentiment is just one of the three pillars of market forecasting.

Filed Under: Bear market, bull market, CNBC, Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), Elliott Wave Theorist, investor psychology, market forecasts, Robert Prechter, S&P 500, sentiment, short selling

Category: Stocks


U.S. Stock Buyers: Beware the Pitfalls of Trend Extrapolation
Change is the only constant in life

By Bob Stokes
3/11/2013 5:30:00 PM

Most people tend to extrapolate today's trends into tomorrow. The irony is that when the crowd reaches a consensus about a trend, that's when it's likely to change. For example, when most everyone agrees that a championship sports team can do no wrong, it usually marks the time when the team's fortunes start to turn south.

Filed Under: Elliott wave, history, mania, Robert Prechter, sentiment, stock indexes, wisdom of crowds

Category: Stocks


European Markets: Are 'Happy Days Here Again'?
Page one of The European Financial Forecast: A chart of Euro Stoxx volatility reveals if a drop in fear means a rise in stocks.

By Nico Isaac
3/7/2013 10:15:00 AM

When the 2007-2009 financial crisis nearly unravelled the global economy, many investors hid under their virtual beds, and parked the bulk of their wealth in safe-haven products. Now it's 2013, and a recent Wall Street Journal article describes an almost emboldening epidemic affecting the world's market participants known as "fear fatigue."

Filed Under: DAX, europe, European debt crisis, european markets, financial forecast, FTSE, sentiment, VIX, volatility

Category: European Markets


3 Sentiment Indicators Warn of a Punch to Stock Portfolios
Investors ignore Washington D.C.'s budget battle

By Bob Stokes
3/4/2013 6:00:00 PM

Money managers say there's no alternative to stocks, and even general-interest magazines scream "BUY!" One forecast is for Dow 60,000! Even after a 4-year rally, billionaire Warren Buffett still considers stocks a "good value." If it seems like market sentiment is virtually one-sided, that's because it is. It's time to look at the stock market from another angle.

Filed Under: bloomberg, CNBC, Elliott Wave Theorist, hedge funds, investment strategy, market forecasts, Robert Prechter, sentiment, stock indexes

Category: Stocks


Investors Look to Experts for Stock Market Signals
Discover the patterns of crowd behavior

By Bob Stokes
3/4/2013 10:30:00 AM

Stock market prices reflect the collective psychology of the people who buy and sell equity shares. Decades of observation show that this psychology unfolds in recognizable patterns. The Wave Principle helps to identify key junctures in those patterns. A special double-issue of the Elliott Wave Theorist elaborates on one such juncture – with an emphasis on "elaborates."

Filed Under: Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), Elliott Wave Principle, Fibonacci, herding, , long-term trend, market forecasts, Robert Prechter, sentiment, technical indicators

Category: Stocks


If George Soros Did Not Trigger the Recent Selloff in Gold, Then Who, or What, Did?
Metals Specialty Service reveals whether bargain hunting in gold should commence

By Nico Isaac
2/20/2013 5:45:00 PM

On Feb. 15, SEC filings revealed that billionaire George Soros pulled around $100 million out of Soros Fund Management LLC's holdings in the third quarter of 2012. Since then, gold spent a few days moving sideways only to lose its grip on Feb. 20 – when prices broke through $1600 and kept on sliding to a nine-month low. So, are the experts right in declaring Soros public enemy number one for gold bulls?

Filed Under: Elliott wave, Gold, investment decisions, precious metals, Relative Strength Index (RSI), sentiment, Traders

Category: Gold and Silver


The New York Stock Exchange Purchase Announcement Sends a Major Market Clue
A big market signal may be overlooked

By Bob Stokes
2/13/2013 5:45:00 PM

There are well-known market indicators which have stood the test of time. Many are technical, some are seasonal and others are sentiment indicators. Yet there's one sentiment indicator that most contrarian investors may overlook. And this one involves the New York Stock Exchange itself. Learn more.

Filed Under: CNBC, Elliott Wave Theorist, financial forecast, investor psychology, Magazine Cover Indicator, New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), sentiment, steve hochberg, stock indexes, technical analysis

Category: Stocks


A Study of Financial Bubbles Reveals a Remarkable Pattern
Financial manias end below where they started

By Bob Stokes
2/11/2013 4:15:00 PM

The tricky thing about financial bubbles is, even the smartest investors don't know they're in one until it bursts. Isaac Newton was a rare genius as a scientist, yet he decided to invest in the South Sea Bubble (1719-1722) just before it burst. Bob Prechter studied major financial bubbles going back to the year 1600 and made a remarkable observation which may be relevant today.

Filed Under: 1929 Stock Market Crash, Bob Prechter, conquer the crash, Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), Elliott Wave Theorist, herding, history, market crash, sentiment, South Sea Bubble

Category: Stocks


Formidable Resistance Remains for the NASDAQ
Why a NASDAQ price barrier may not be broken

By Bob Stokes
2/8/2013 5:15:00 PM

The NASDAQ Composite has barely advanced in the past 10 months, despite an extremely bullish sentiment. The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast called attention to the upper trendline of a parallel price channel in April 2012, and that upper trendline has remained a barrier to a NASDAQ Composite advance. The just-published February Financial Forecast provides insights into why the market now faces a historic juncture.

Filed Under: Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), Elliott wave, Fibonacci, financial forecast, market forecasts, Nasdaq Composite, sentiment, technical indicators, trendlines

Category: Stocks


Is It Really Time to Buy Europe?
Before you sit down at Europe's born-again-bulls table, make sure your analysis has all of its objective legs intact

By Nico Isaac
2/6/2013 12:30:00 PM

When it comes to assessing the near- and long-term trends underway in financial markets, Elliott wave analysts adopt what I call the three-legged stool approach to forecasting. Their analysis rests on three main factors: Elliott wave structure, technical indicators, and sentiment. The first two legs are tangible: Elliott wave patterns unfold in clear and calculable formations on financial market price charts. Technical indicators are also observable on price charts as oscillators or bar patterns or candlesticks and the like. But what about sentiment -- how do you measure extremes in human emotion?

Filed Under: banks, Elliott wave, euro, euro stoxx 50, europe, european central bank, european markets, eurozone, sentiment

Category: European Markets


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© 2013 Elliott Wave International

The Elliott Wave Principle is a detailed description of how financial markets behave. The description reveals that mass psychology swings from pessimism to optimism and back in a natural sequence, creating specific Elliott wave patterns in price movements. Each pattern has implications regarding the position of the market within its overall progression, past, present and future. The purpose of Elliott Wave International’s market-oriented publications is to outline the progress of markets in terms of the Wave Principle and to educate interested parties in the successful application of the Wave Principle. While a course of conduct regarding investments can be formulated from such application of the Wave Principle, at no time will Elliott Wave International make specific recommendations for any specific person, and at no time may a reader, caller or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended. Investing carries risk of losses, and trading futures or options is especially risky because these instruments are highly leveraged, and traders can lose more than their initial margin funds. Information provided by Elliott Wave International is expressed in good faith, but it is not guaranteed. The market service that never makes mistakes does not exist. Long-term success trading or investing in the markets demands recognition of the fact that error and uncertainty are part of any effort to assess future probabilities. Please ask your broker or your advisor to explain all risks to you before making any trading and investing decisions.