Related Topics
Trading , Energy , ETFs

This Energy ETF Is on Wall Street's "Buy" List. But Have They Already Missed the Boat?

The best time to get on board this bullish trend was back in November, before prices doubled!

by Nico Isaac
Updated: July 14, 2021

These days, it's easy to get sucked into the media vortex swirling around cartoon memes turned billion-dollar cryptocurrencies, or tech giants shooting themselves into outer space. So much so that you may not realize that the best-performing financial sector of the first half of 2021 was...

...the oil industry! And its related energy exchange traded funds. (Chart provided by Fact Sheet)


One such oil fund -- in fact, the oldest and largest of the bunch -- the S&P's Energy Select Sector SPDR Index XLE has risen to become one of Wall Street's hottest summer picks:

  • "Stocks This Week: Buy Energy Sector SPDR Fund" (July 11 Forbes)
  • "Oil, Energy Sector Gain on Improving Fundamentals" (July 8
  • "Can Energy Stocks & ETFs Continue Their Hot Streak?" (June 17 Yahoo! Finance)

In the words of a July 7 Forbes:

"Energy Was the Top Performing Sector in the First Half of 2021... The rocky times of 2020 are well behind the energy sector at this point. Last year there were many premature obituaries written for the energy sector, but it has certainly shown plenty of life in 2021."

Indeed, one of those premature obituaries was for XLE. Last October and November, the oil supply crisis caused by the pandemic was slated to bury all energy-related assets six feet underground. Said an October 30 Barron's:

"Energy is the worst sector, ever."

Added the November 2 CNBC:

"Energy stocks aren't worth holding as they sink deeper into the red... There's no clear indication of a trend change anywhere close to happening with this particular index."

And yet, an upside trend change is exactly what happened.

As it's often the case, Elliott wave price patterns showed them beforehand. Our November 9, 2020, Energy Pro Service showed this chart of XLE that anticipated a bullish change of trend.

"With five distinct legs from the 46.88 swing peak through the 26.98 low, a bottom of some magnitude appears to be in place...

"If this is the operable wave count, the XLE should trend on up in an impulsive manner."


From there, XLE began to rally, reaching the $40 level by November 24th. The fund's moves were up-down-up into February, at which point our analysis saw the upside path clear for takeoff.

Our February 10, 2021, Energy Pro Service showed a third wave rally unfolding -- the strongest and fastest of all Elliott waves -- and said: "The XLE should ratchet on up from the 38.94 swing low in an impulsive manner. Any backing and filling should prove corrective and set the stage for further advance."


And this last chart captures the bullish change of trend that persisted as XLE continued its impulsive rally to a 16-month high in July.


While no Elliott wave forecast is ever perfect, what's undeniable is that the waves allow you to actually forecast the trend instead focusing what's already behind.

Our Energy Pro Service is just a click away.

Will XLE double from here – again?

You don't have to wonder. You can know.

Our trader-focused Energy Pro Service gives you daily and intraday updates, Elliott wave-labeled price charts, and risk-minimizing price levels that help traders know.

Here's how to read our new Energy Pro Service forecasts instantly.

4 ways EWI's Energy Pro Service lets you trade with more confidence

If it's a major energy market, we'll help you stay on top of it.

1. You Get Timely Intraday and Daily Forecasts

Your Energy Pro Service subscription puts a veteran energy market expert in your corner. His goal is to make sure that day-by-day, hour-by-hour, you see the very latest Elliott wave picture. You get intensive intraday coverage to help you catch near-term opportunities and daily forecasts that let you get in front of longer-term waves.

Markets covered: NYMEX: crude oil, natgas, unleaded, heating oil; ICE Brent; energy ETFs (XLE, etc.)

2. You’re Ready for All Probabilities with Video Overviews

Three times a week, editor Steve Craig records new videos to walk you through ALL Elliott wave counts for the Energy complex. You see his outlook in detail – plus, any strong alternatives that may enter the picture. Result: You’re prepared to act on all probabilities.

3. You Get Essential Weekly Perspective

Context is key. Your Energy Pro Service subscription gives you big-picture analysis to help you ride major trends – trends that can last years. This essential perspective puts the near-term moves into context. Together, you get a comprehensive Elliott wave picture for the energy markets at every degree of trend.

4. You Become Part of an Exclusive Community of Savvy Elliott Wave Traders

We're on your side and working for you. If you have a question about the Wave Principle or our analysis, just send us an email. We'll update the next post or video so you and your fellow subscribers get the clarity you need.

Or, if you're having a hard time grasping an Elliott wave concept, often we can suggest a resource for you to read or watch.

We know we're successful when you understand the Wave Principle and our analysis. We'll do what we can to make sure that happens.

Note that we do not provide individualized services, assistance or advice concerning investing or trading in any way.

Start Your Subscription Now

Personlize your Energy Pro Service package to get the coverage you need. You pay only for the markets and timeframes you order, and the more you select, the less you pay for each one. Try our selection tool to see how it works.

Market Trek: Why Has EUR Been So Weak? Think in '8s'

There is a curious 8-year cycle in the euro's strength and weakness. And now that it's near parity with the U.S. dollar, it's worth talking about a curious pattern in the dollar's bouts of strength, too. Watch your Market Trek host Brian Whitmer show you a couple of eye-opening charts with big implications for global stability. (Brian's destination today is Madrid, Spain.)

BOOM! The Supersonic Indicator

Supersonic flight is making a comeback. And the timing couldn't be better. Our Head of Global Research explains why.

Euro/Dollar Parity: A "Sight Unseen" in 20 Years. But NOT a Sight Un-Foreseen!

In January 2021, the euro was on fire, soaring to its highest level against the U.S. dollar in three years. Mainstream forex experts saw a fixed image of a giant euro bull as the demand for the "safe-haven" buck dipped amidst a widely expected post-pandemic recovery. But that image looked a whole lot different through the telescope of Elliott waves.