Bitcoin Soars 10% in 20 Minutes. Here’s What Really Happened.

Uptober or the Fed -- which one caused the crypto's surge? In our view... neither.

by Nico Isaac
Updated: October 04, 2021

In case you weren't awake yet to see it with your own eyes, in the early morning hours of October 1, between 6:25 am and 6:45 am, Bitcoin prices soared a whopping 10%.

The before-sunrise surge left some analysts with a woozy, am-I-dreaming sense of disbelief. Said one October 1 Yahoo Finance:

"Bitcoin's Biggest Jump Since July Leaves Traders Speculating Why.

"Traders offered a variety of possible reasons for the gains, while noting that the fractionalized market leaves digital assets vulnerable to volatile price swings."

While others attempted to explain the sudden spike with a slew of bullish catalysts, such as:

1. A late-night Tweet by El Salvador's president Nayib Bukele announcing the first successful volcano-powered Bitcoin mining. (Oct. 1 MarketWatch)
2. Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell's recent pledge not to ban cryptocurrencies like China.
3. And finally, as this October 1 New York Post headlines suggests: "Bitcoin spikes 10 percent Friday as crypto fans celebrate ‘Uptober.'"

Problem is, the tweet came on October 1, the Fed spoke on September 29, but Bitcoin bottomed on September 28. Meaning, while both events may very well have ridden the wind at its back, they didn't create that wind.

As for the idea that October is synonymous with Bitcoin gains, where this idea originates stumps me. Because if you look at the historical data of all the October's in bitcoin's history, you'll find both Uptober's and Downtober's. To wit:

• The 7 Octobers of 2009, 2013, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2019 and 2020 saw positive monthly returns for bitcoin.
• The 5 Octobers of 2010, 2011, 2012, 2014, and 2018 saw negative monthly returns

I enjoy punching holes in the mainstream reasoning because it paves the way to a new way of thinking about market behavior. Specifically, that prices are not driven by the news but by Elliott wave patterns of market psychology.

On September 28 -- three days before Bitcoin's 10% surge -- our Crypto Pro Service set the stage for a powerful advance. That evening at 11:49 PM, we called for a third-wave rally:

"The reaction from the test of 40830.44, the wave ((W)) low, may hint a low is in place for wave ii. Against 40820.14, the focus is higher in five waves

"Breaking out of wave ii's corrective price channel and above 44296.64 is the bull's next objective."

BEFORE:

AFTER:

In the end, there will always be some great "fundamentals-based" reason to "explain" market moves -- after the fact.

But for traders who want to arrive at those moves in advance, our Crypto Pro Service is your best shot.