Related Topics
Economy , Asian Markets , US Markets
     

What a Major Indicator of “Housing Busts” is Showing Now

“It was the first such decline since November 2015”

by Bob Stokes
Updated: July 21, 2022

The housing market tends to go the way of the stock market, and nearly everyone knows that the stock market has been sliding.

There's another housing market indicator that our July Global Market Perspective mentioned:

[Home] sales declines invariably lead the way into housing busts. This one... should arrive faster and more forcefully than the experts expect.

Homes sales have already begun to decline:

  • U.S. existing home sales fall for third straight month; house prices at record high (Reuters, May 19)
  • Sales of existing homes fell in May, and more declines are expected (CNBC, June 21)

Sales of luxury homes in some areas have dropped significantly. As examples,, in Nassau County, NY, Oakland, CA, Dallas, TX, Austin, TX and West Palm Beach, FL, annual drops in the rate of upper-end home sales for the three months ended April 30 stretched from 32.8% to 45.3%.

As June numbers roll in, more signs of a real estate slowdown are evident. For instance, the number of active U.S. home listings jumped 18.7% in June from a year earlier, the largest annual increase since the data started in 2017.

The housing bubble is by no means confined to the U.S. Bloomberg reports that New Zealand, Australia and Canada look even more "frothy" than the U.S.

And, then there's China. Here's a chart and commentary from our June Global Market Perspective:

ChinasSurefire

Month-to-month prices of China's new-home sales turned negative in September, and they've continued to fall since. The year-over-year average of new home prices also fell in April. It was the first such decline since November 2015.

In Elliott Wave International's view, housing markets around the globe are on shaky ground and those who bought at the peak of this latest housing boom better be prepared.

Get our detailed analysis of housing, global economies and 50-plus financial markets around the world.

Get started by clicking the link below.

The Biggest Global Financial “Shift” of a Lifetime: Starting Soon?

Elliott wave analysis strongly suggests the answer is yes.

The charts and Elliott wave labels lay out the forecast in our July Global Market Perspective.

Yes, some of the 50-plus financial markets in GMP's monthly coverage are closer to the "shift" than others...

...Yet the overall global financial story is eyebrow raising.

Get ready for a global financial "shift" that will likely unfold swiftly.

Follow the link below to read our July Global Market Perspective, plus get instant access to the June & May issue so you can catch up and prepare now.

EXCLUSIVE

Shanghai Composite: Does the Rally Have Legs?

Chinese stocks have risen strongly off their October lows. With all the political turmoil in China, many are wondering if the rally is just a flash in the pan. Our Asian-Pacific Short Term Update editor, Chris Carolan, walks you through the Shanghai Composite's Elliott wave pattern to give you an unvarnished, objective answer.

EXCLUSIVE

2024 Presidential Race: 3 Dow Levels to Watch

With the midterms in the rearview mirror, let's look ahead to the 2024 presidential race. Polls have infamously missed the mark over the past few election cycles. Discover how you can use the stock market to anticipate the election outcome without polling a single person.

Chinese Stocks vs. Protests: Which Leads, Which Follows?

On TV, financial pundits connect the day's news to market action all the time. But watch our monthly Asian-Pacific Financial Forecast editor, Mark Galasiewski, walk you through the timeline of China's recent protests and the action in the Shanghai Composite to dispel (yet again) the myth that "news drives markets."