Commodity Prices: After 1 Year of Declines, What’s Next?

by Editorial Staff
Updated: June 09, 2023

Hey investors, Mark Galasiewski here. Let me give you a brief update about commodity prices, which have been falling for a year.

After the multi-decade low in commodities in April 2020, our October 2020 publications said that the Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund was tracing out the initial stages of a new impulsive advance.

After the ETF traced out five waves up and then corrected quickly in a second wave, our January 2022 publications said that it had probably begun a third wave advance.

Then, our April 2022 publications said that the volatility just then was part of a fourth wave, possibly a triangle.

And, as the ETF subsequently broke down below the lower line of the trend channel that had contained the five-wave advance, our July 2022 issue said that commodities had topped.

The ETF has since declined in line with our forecast, but how much further is it expected to fall, and what does that mean for emerging market equities, whose fortunes tend to ebb and flow with commodities?

You'll find the answers to those questions in the June 2023 issue of Asian-Pacific Financial Forecast or Global Market Perspective.

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