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Crude Oil: What to Make of the Bearish Sentiment

Our Chief Energy Analyst reveals if the recent downtrend in crude will continue

by Alexandra Lienhard
Updated: July 27, 2016

Steve Craig, editor of our Energy Pro Service, tells you what to make of the current sentiment picture in oil -- and what he's looking for down the road in crude, natural gas and more.

Alexandra Lienhard: After rallying since the new year began, crude has been heavily falling for the last month. We thought it would be an opportune time to chart with Steve Craig, Elliott Wave International's Chief Energy Analyst in a new segment we're calling Market Minute for ElliottWaveTV.

Steve, thanks for joining me today.

Steve Craig: Hi, Alex.

Alexandra: Now Steve, crude has been falling for over a month, and the decline seems to be picking up steam, consistent with what you have been looking for. What are you seeing right now?

Steve: After completing what looks like a textbook example of an Elliott wave zigzag advance after this early June peak, the ensuing decline is best described as choppy and somewhat slow and lethargic. It's also being contained within parallel lines, which oil tested the bottom end of today (*Editor's note: this interview was recorded on Tuesday, July 26). This gives it a corrective look at this juncture. I think the key is at this juncture.

Alexandra: Is the bearish sentiment extreme or is there still more downside potential?

Steve: I think it's the latter, sentiment is definitely turning bearish, but it's not at an extreme. So this leaves plenty room for additional selling pressure.

Alexandra: Any other markets you follow have similar potential setups -- trend exhaustion, reversals on the horizon?

Steve: Brent has been trending lower, along with crude. But natural gas is beginning to get interesting. The media focus hasn't been intense, but it's definitely at a bullish twist and while natural gas hasn't tipped its hand just yet, I think it's on the verge -- and certainly is worth watching at this juncture.

Alexandra: Thanks for talking today, Steve. This has been an ElliottWaveTV Market Minute.

Learn more about Steve Craig's forecasts and analysis for the energy markets:

Oil... Gas... ETFs... What'll Be Your Next "Homerun" Trade?

Energy can be volatile -- and that's a good thing! Volatility means opportunity. Let new intraday and daily Energy Pro Service forecasts be your guide to the next major energy move.