Treat houses as a consumption item -- or simply as a place to live, and history shows that real prices will fluctuate only modestly over the decades.

Treat houses as an investment, and the value of houses take on the characteristics of the stock market.

This is from the January 2012 Elliott Wave Theorist -- in the wake of the prior housing bust:

Real home prices [in a U.S. index] stayed within a range of 66-123 [from 1890] until 1997. Then they went straight up for 9 years. Inflation doesn't account for the rise in real prices, because inflation has been factored out. And loans were available for decades without causing real prices to soar. Why did it finally happen?... Real estate began to take on the aura of being an investment.

As we know, after going up for 9 straight years, the housing market then crashed -- just like the stock market is apt to do at times.

That same psychology of "a house as an investment" sent prices soaring again in the most recent housing bubble.

However, trouble has already started to brew. Here's a Sept. 2 CNBC headline:

1 in 5 home sellers are now dropping their asking price as the housing market cools

This brings us to our latest analysis -- which we've provided in the just-published special report "Home Prices: How Much Trouble Are YOU In?"

Here's just one of the several charts you'll find in our special report, along with the commentary:


Many of the cities that led the real estate market on the way up are now doing so on the way down. Home sellers in former boomtowns have been quickest to lower asking prices....

Nationally, Redfin reports that the percentage of sellers lowering their prices is the largest since it started tracking the data in 2012... The tide is turning.

Likewise, builders themselves have been reducing prices. A Sept. 24 Yahoo Finance article noted:

Almost 1 in 4 home builders reported reducing their price this month, up from 19% in August... Home builder confidence fell three points to its lowest level since May 2014.

You'll find more evidence in our special report that the "tide is turning" for the U.S. housing market, including examinations of housing starts and what's going on with a firm that's been a big player in the housing flipping business.

And getting back to asking prices, you may be interested in knowing that on August 15, Bloomberg reported that asking prices in the United Kingdom fell at their fastest pace in two-and-a-half years.

Speaking of which, the coverage in our special report extends beyond the U.S. as we look at European, Asian-Pacific and Australian property markets.

Here's the good news: You can access our special report "Home Prices: How Much Trouble Are YOU In?" for free for a limited time.

Just follow the link below this video to get started.

Special Report:

Home Prices: How Much Trouble Are YOU In?

If you own a home -- or if you're thinking about buying one -- no doubt you're glued to what's going on in the real estate market. As in:

  • Rates are up
  • Demand is down
  • And there's a growing sense of unease, among homeowners and professionals alike, about where the market is headed.

We can help.

In this special report, you'll find compelling, Elliott-based analysis revealing where global real estate trends are most likely headed next. In chart after fascinating chart -- you'll see key insights into future home prices that you won't find anywhere else.

If you're in the U.S., U.K., Germany, Australia or Japan, this special report will show you where the dangers -- and opportunities -- are.

This kind of analysis is usually reserved for our paying Global Market Perspective subscribers. But I've arranged to get you this report free for a limited time ($29 value).

Use it well.

Jason Lureman

Jason Lureman
Product Manager
Elliott Wave International

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