Gold: Why You Should Be Wary of the “Consensus”
Recent sentiment toward the yellow metal matched peak 2011 levels
by Bob Stokes
Updated: September 30, 2020
You may recall investor optimism that attended gold's then record high of $1921.50 in September 2011.
A Gallup poll from that time period captured the prevailing sentiment. Our Sept. 2, 2011 Elliott Wave Financial Forecast said:
Perhaps the strongest sign of a gold top is a recent Gallup poll showing Americans now consider gold to be the best long-term investment. Gallup parsed the survey by gender, age, income level and political affiliation and in every single subset, gold won out. ...Everyone is onboard gold's uptrend. It is surely a sign of exhaustion.
Indeed, less than a week later, gold hit its then record high.
Well, as you probably know, gold went on to pass that record high here in 2020. The price reached $2072.12 on August 8.
The August 14 Elliott Wave Theorist showed this figure and said:
[The figure] shows a 10-day moving average of Market Vane's Bullish Consensus toward gold. This indicator tracks the daily buy/sell recommendations of market analysts and commodity trading advisors. As you can see, the consensus is strongly bullish.
This strongly bullish was expressed less than two weeks later in this Yahoo! News headline (August 25):
Why $5000 Gold Could Soon Become A Reality
That's possible -- yet, if you've been keeping up with gold's price, you know that it's more than 4% lower (as of Sept. 25) than it was when the August Elliott Wave Theorist discussed Market Vane's Bullish Consensus.
Should investors expect the "bottom to drop out" from here on out, or is there still more upside to go for gold?
Well, besides sentiment measures, it's also a good idea to keep an eye on the Elliott wave structure of gold's price chart.
Learn what you need to know by reading our flagship investor package. Prepare now for what the Elliott wave model suggests is next for gold.
Far Too Many Investors LOSE Money in the Stock Market: Why?
EWI founder Robert Prechter says one of the main reasons is...
...That too many people make investment decisions based on the news of the day. In other words: They buy on good news and sell on bad news.
This happens especially at major market turns -- the worst time to make the mistake!
Learn what Elliott wave analysis reveals about today's stock market juncture, so you can make high-confidence preparations for what's likely next.
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Why a U.S. Recession May Foil Economists’ Expectations
A recent survey reveals positive expectations for the economy by a group of "professional forecasters." Learn why you may not want to bet the farm on that expectation. This chart compares leading economic indicators around the time of past recessions with what's going on now.
Gold Mining Stocks Lead Gold Lower: What’s “Fundamentals” Got to Do with It?
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