by Nico Isaac
Updated: November 13, 2018
"I've got gadgets and gizmos a-plenty. You want thingamabobs? I've got twenty!"
Disney's The Little Mermaid
Look at the chart below of Walt Disney Co. and what do you see?
Perhaps it's the large selloff from the January 2018 peak. Or the three-month long sideways trend that followed.
But can you see the most important detail of all -- namely, a clear hint at where prices were headed next?
At the time, many "mouse-eared" investors turned to mainstream analysis for the answer. What they found, however, was a fundamental tug-of-war between bullish and bearish factors that ultimately ended in a tie. Take these May 2018 news events:
In the words of one May 9 Barron's:
"While headline figures were generally above expectations, the quarter still illustrates some of the key margin eroding elements which should mute a degree of optimism about the strategically positive long-term direction the company is going in."
Translation: Disney's stock is in a deadlock.
But that wasn't the way we saw the stock. See, on June 5, our Trader's Classroom editor Jeffrey Kennedy reached into his technical toolbox and pulled out one of his favorite "gadgets" for identifying a market's price trend: the multiple inside bar pattern. This technical formation is characterized by a lengthy period of price compression and consolidation. But, as Jeffrey explains,
"We're never going to go sideways forever. At some point, it's either going to break down or give way to further rally."
In his June 5 Trader's Classroom lesson, Jeffrey expanded the scale of Disney's price chart and showed how a multi-year long multiple inside bar pattern was near its end. Jeffrey explained: "I believe prices are headed significantly higher."
Go ahead and listen to Jeffrey's June 5 Trader's Classroom analysis of Disney first hand via the link below:
The next chart shows what happened next: Disney stock turned up in a powerful rally to its highest level in three years.
Not every Trader's Classroom lesson ends in a Disney-like happy ending. But every Traders Classroom lesson does provide objective, technical details to minimize risk in the world's leading financial markets.
At such moments, it's hard not to feel like a total failure. After all, market trends either move up or down. How hard can it be?
"So why don't I get it right more often? And when I do, I sell too soon since I don't know how far it will go. But when I'm wrong, I just sit there and hope it'll turn back around in my favor. Yet it almost never does... until after I've already covered!"
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Jeffrey Kennedy, MSTA, CFTe, CMT, CEWA-M, has 25-plus years of experience as an analyst, trader and teacher. Besides Commodity Junctures, he also produces Trader's Classroom, an educational service that shows how to spot trading opportunities with wave analysis and supporting technical methods. Subscribers and students always tell us how committed he is to helping them plan for and achieve trading success.
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Your other choice is to keep doing what you've been doing, with intermittent success and consistent frustrations.
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