by Bob Stokes
Updated: November 15, 2018
In 1929, economist Irving Fisher said:
Stocks have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau.
Three days later, the stock market took a dramatic dive, and the Great Depression eventually followed.
Fisher's fateful statement became legendary, yet that wasn't the last time that a stock market observer made a bold prediction.
As Robert Prechter's Conquer the Crash noted:
One thing that does happen repeatedly near a top in the stock market is that investors raise their upside forecasts dramatically. In 1999-2000 ... books came out calling for Dow 36,000, Dow 40,000 and Dow 100,000.
As we know, those predictions came just in time for the start of a bear market in 2000. But the bull market that followed rekindled the sentiment that stocks had nowhere to go but up.
Even a representative of one of Wall Street's most prestigious firms was caught up in the financial euphoria. In a 2014 article about financial predictions, CNBC said:
Goldman Sachs chief strategist ... set an uberbullish 1,675 price target for the S&P 500 for . The stock market index would close at 903.25, a 37% drop and 46% below [the strategist's] target.
After the stock market bottomed in 2009, an even longer bull market has followed.
The May 2018 Elliott Wave Financial Forecast took note of another round of bold stock market predictions:
The Dow's 12% retreat from its January peak failed to stem the fascination with upside projections. Here's the headline from April 2 at one online financial website:
Here's When the Dow Could Hit
50,000, 100,000 or 1,000,000
These Milestones Are Probably A Lot Closer Than You Realize
Then, just the other day, on Nov. 5, CNBC ran a story that noted:
Billionaire ... sees the Dow reaching 500,000 in 50 years
... prediction pretty much lines up with Warren Buffett, who said last year he sees the Dow at 1,000,000 in 100 years.
Who knows if these predictions will turn out to be correct. Of course, many people will not be around to find out in 50 years, and certainly not 100 years.
But the point is that dramatic upside forecasts are being made -- again.
This tells you a whole lot about the sentiment surrounding the stock market, but you also need to take into account other factors -- like the stock market's chart pattern.
Find out how you can tap into the insights of our Elliott wave experts -- just below.
It's the Elliott Wave Principle.
Frost & Prechter wrote a book on the subject and it became a treasured Wall Street classic.
Here's an excerpt:
Although it is the best forecasting tool in existence, the Wave Principle is not primarily a forecasting tool: it is a detailed description of how markets behave.
As our Elliott wave experts see it, the stock market now faces a critical juncture.
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