43 Results

The Big Picture and Short Story in Treasuries, Part II

Updated: May 25, 2018

In September 2017, were you ready for the 8-month-long fall in Treasury Notes? Are you ready now for another trend reversal? See this chart...

How the Danger of Debt Looms Large

Updated: May 8, 2018

High-debt levels combined with rising rates means increasing financial pain for borrowers. The eventual result is an all-out credit collapse.See a chart that suggests a debt implosion may be closer than many observers realize.

Will Rising Bond Yields Send Stock Prices Tumbling?

Updated: April 26, 2018

The financial press has recently been saying that rising bond yields have been creating turmoil for the stock market. But, is there a "cause and effect" relationship between bond yields and the stock market? Check out this research.

The Big Picture -- and the Short Story -- in Treasury Bonds

Updated: April 25, 2018

Recent headlines scream 'Treasury yields 3 percent!!' Now see the chart and forecast showing that this trend has been unfolding for some time.

Why Most Investors Stay Stuck One Step Behind the Market

Updated: April 20, 2018

"Credit rating agencies and the subprime crisis" was such a hot topic 10 years ago, after the stock market crash, that it now has its own Wikipedia page. Many mistakes have been corrected since then. But one flaw remains.

Are Pension Funds Embracing Too Much Risk?

Updated: March 8, 2018

Alarming: This huge pension fund loses 5% of its assets in just 11 trading days. Is the worst yet to arrive? According to EWI's analysis, ALL investors need to learn how to get "financially safe."

Should You "Fret" Over the New Fed Chair's Possible Actions?

Updated: February 28, 2018

The mainstream financial press analyzes every word of the Fed's discussions about interest rates. But the evidence shows that the U.S. central bank does not lead on rates. These two charts are revealing.

U.S. Treasury Bonds: A Sentiment Reversal From Mid-December

Updated: February 23, 2018

Since the peak in September 2017, T-Bond futures prices have recently fallen hard -- now see the unfolding (and telling) reversal in sentiment among two trader groups.

Why These "Safety-Minded" Investors Are Probably in for a Shock

Updated: February 16, 2018

If you think bonds are a "safe" alternative to stocks, think again. History shows that bonds can go through wild swings like stocks. Look at these two charts .

Find Out Who Leads the Way on Interest Rates (…It's NOT the Fed)

Updated: January 29, 2018

The mainstream financial press analyzes every word of the Fed's discussions about interest rates. But it's a myth that the U.S. central bank determines the direction of rates. These two charts are revealing.

Why to Beware of "Bondmaggedon"

Updated: January 12, 2018

See what a generational change in trend looks like -- plus a preview of what may be next in Treasury yields.

Look Who's Pressing Bullish Bets on U.S. Treasury Bonds

Updated: December 13, 2017

Most investors extrapolate financial trends into the future. So, they are usually unprepared when the trend changes. Making matters worse, they also usually miss significant countertrend moves. Let's take a look at the bond market.

Junk Kisses the Bull Market Goodbye

Updated: December 13, 2017

A classic pattern signals a trend reversal in high-yield debt: See the clear warning for yourself.

Credit Default Swaps: “Where Are They Now?”

Updated: December 4, 2017

If you remember, credit default swaps were at the heart of the financial crisis, so doing a bit of a “Where are they now?” investigation today is more than relevant.

Market Myth #4: Interest Rates Drive Stock Prices

Updated: November 21, 2017

Think the Fed's interest rates control the stock market? Watch as Matt Lampert shows you how to bust this market myth in 2 minutes, using real-world examples from Robert Prechter's Socionomic Theory of Finance.

Are All Bonds EQUALLY Low Risk?

Updated: November 21, 2017

The junk-to-treasury spread recently closed to ZERO, for the first time EVER. Wall Street says "no big deal" -- now see for yourself how BIG this is.

Big Default, Small Default: Tests of Confidence in the Global Debt Market

Updated: November 20, 2017

What happens when HIGH consumer confidence joins LOW savings See and hear the answer right now

US Treasury Bonds Are Flashing Red Alert Again

Updated: November 9, 2017

Who "controls" interest rates? Wall Street thinks it knows, but see our answer for yourself.

What Happens When the Fed FINALLY Reduces Its $4.5 Trillion Balance Sheet?

Updated: October 4, 2017

The Federal Reserve announced last month that they would start to reduce their $4.5 trillion balance sheet in October, thereby starting the process we call Quantitative Tightening (QT)...

What Does "Desperate Complacency" Look Like? See For Yourself...

Updated: September 14, 2017

The "Term Premium" for bonds was below zero for decades. Not now: See why markets are ripe for an historic moment.

Believe Your Own Eyes: Central Banks FOLLOW the Market

Updated: September 14, 2017

The longstanding myth is, the interest rate market follows the lead of the central bank. Now see the facts for yourself.

Why Speculators Should Keep a Close Eye on the Bond Market

Updated: September 8, 2017

Bonds are generally considered far less risky than the stock market. That's a big reason why flows into bond mutual funds and ETFs have been substantial in the past two years. But there's a major reason to be wary of the bond market. See for yourself.

Europe: How Bond Investors Get Wiped Out

Updated: August 25, 2017

Wipe out! That's what can happen when investors reach for yield in high-risk debt instruments. See a stunning European example.

President Trump and ... the Yield Curve?

Updated: August 25, 2017

This chart offers a completely different take on the question of why President Trump's approval is falling.

Jackson (W)Hole Lotta Hype

Updated: August 24, 2017

This week, the great and the good from central banks around the world gather in Jackson Hole, Wyoming for the annual Kansas City Fed Economic Policy Symposium, and the world's financial media will hang on every word in the hope that something meaningful will be said...

Why the Bond Market Should Be Watching Tesla

Updated: August 22, 2017

Tesla's share price at an all-time high, its junk bond yield at a record low. Today's investor appetite for risk is strong indeed...

Bank of Canada Hike: Surprised? You shouldn't be.

Updated: July 13, 2017

Grabbing the headlines today is the Bank of Canada's first interest rate hike in seven years. Speculation amongst conventional economists has now turned to whether they will continue to hike rates. We have a simple answer to that question: watch the market.

This is Why Municipal Bonds Are No "Day at the Beach"

Updated: July 5, 2017

Even during a national economic expansion, many U.S. municipalities are financially troubled. "Two out of every three states took in less tax revenue than expected this year." This chart of muni bond yield spreads will make you wonder about the future.

Fed Week: One and Done?

Updated: June 13, 2017

Whenever the Fed makes its scheduled interest rates announcement, it's almost always an exciting moment in the markets. But, for an objective guidance on future Fed actions, keep calm ... and follow market rates.

Municipal Bonds: Still "on Track for a Train Wreck"

Updated: June 12, 2017

The head of credit research for a municipal-bond management firm just commented: "We haven't seen this in a modern state before." He was talking about Illinois' deep fiscal trouble. Look at the eye-brow-raising credit spread.

Why Renewed Danger Lurks in the U.S. Leveraged Loan Market

Updated: June 7, 2017

In investing, one rule of thumb tells you that the higher the return, the higher the risk. Today, one high-yield debt instrument that was at the forefront of the 2007-2009 financial crisis has reached a new, dangerous milestone. We're sounding the alarm -- again.

Higher Interest Rates: "Good" for the U.S. Dollar?

Updated: June 6, 2017

Financial news networks spend untold hours debating with their guests as to whether interest rates will rise or fall -- and the effect that will have on the currency. But what if they argued ... over nothing? See this chart and analysis from Murray Gunn and decide for yourself.

Debt, Politics, and Russia: A "Spike" Dead Ahead?

Updated: May 17, 2017

Charts like this one show that markets can anticipate huge shifts in broad psychology: Another dangerous spike may be just around the bend.

Bonds: What Hedge Funds' "Record Reversal" Tells You

Updated: May 17, 2017

Maxwell Edison may have majored in medicine, as the Beatles sang, but many of the "brainiacs" on Wall Street are hedge fund managers. Even so, their performance record at key market turns often leaves a lot to be desired. See this eye-opening bond market chart.

Recall This Bond Trader Chart? Here's What Happened

Updated: April 25, 2017

Our three recent Treasury Bond charts combine to show you trader sentiment, price action and important near-term turns and trends.

What to Expect for Interest Rates During Deflation

Updated: April 7, 2017

The best time to prepare for a major financial change is before it happens. With that in mind, Elliott Wave International has been preparing subscribers for what we see around the corner by reviewing what has happened in the past regarding interest rates.

Bond Traders And Sentiment Reversal: Here's What It Looks Like

Updated: March 23, 2017

Two trader groups habitually on opposite sides of the market are at it again: See what past extremes say to the present trend.

Why the Fed's Rate Hike Means Nothing to the Stock Market

Updated: March 17, 2017

The Fed just announced a 0.25% hike of its benchmark rate -- the second such move in the past three months. A long-held Wall Street belief is that higher rates mean a downturn in stock market prices. Let's put that belief to a test.

What Could Follow the End of the 70-Year Rate Cycle?

Updated: February 22, 2017

Here's a chart you won't see elsewhere: Bob Prechter's analysis and observations, depicted visually in the 70-year interest rate cycle. If the symmetry holds, it suggests that the time to come could include years of crisis, Deflation, Depression and possible World War.

Why You Should Be Cautious About Credit Ratings

Updated: January 17, 2017

If you count on standard credit rating agencies for timely warnings, you might find yourself "behind the 8-ball." Time and again, downgrades have occurred after the damage has already been done. Now is the time to protect your portfolio.

How Bond Investors Were Fooled Twice

Updated: January 9, 2017

Most investors extrapolate financial trends into the future. So, they are usually unprepared when the trend changes. Making matters worse, they also usually miss significant countertrend moves. Let's take a look at the bond market.

Do Interest Rates Follow the Federal Reserve Or Do Interest Rates Lead and the Fed Follows?

Updated: October 28, 2015

What comes first? See the evidence on these three charts for yourself in Episode 4 of the Elliott Wave Pillars Series.

Does the Federal Reserve Drive the Stock Market Trend?

Updated: February 25, 2015

Millions of investors analyze the Fed's every word. But do central banks control financial markets? It's time to take a close look at the data.
43 Results