97 Results

Junk Bonds: 2 “Golden” Junctures

Updated: February 13, 2020

The “golden ratio” is often found in the chart patterns of financial markets and often marks a key juncture. EWI’s Head of Global Research pinpoints not only one, but two “golden ratio” junctures in this chart.

What Elliott Waves Show You About Bond ETFs Right Now

Updated: February 5, 2020

Along with stock ETFs, bond ETFs are another popular investment tool. Watch our Interest Rates Pro Service editor explain 5 key points about bond ETFs -- and show you what the clear Elliott wave picture in BND, a Vanguard ETF, suggest for bonds next.

See the Forecasts Which Predicted 12 Months of Action in Treasuries

Updated: January 15, 2020

This Chart of the Day will show you something ... different: A year's worth of the move-by-move analysis we delivered to Interest Rate Pro Services subscribers. Yes, there really is that much to show.

2 MORE Signs of an Epic Financial Complacency

Updated: December 27, 2019

As the longest bull market in history persists, many investors are complacent about stocks and other risk assets. Ironically, volatility has a way of erupting just when investors increase their bullish bets. This chart is enlightening.

European Markets: "Exactly what we would expect…"

Updated: December 13, 2019

The year is wrapping up, so let's take a fly-over view of Europe. Watch as our monthly Global Market Perspective contributor shows you some eye-opening statistics -- and puts it in the all-important Elliott wave perspective.

What Does Government "Stimulus" Tell You? The Past and Present in Japan Has the Answer

Updated: December 10, 2019

Governments use "fiscal stimulus" to kick start a weak economy … right? That's what textbooks say, but, real-world experience is otherwise. In truth, government "stimulus" is a lagging response to a bear market that has already turned around. See EWI's Mark Galasiewski explain the past and present in Japan as a case-in-point, with the opportunity it suggests.

How to Apply Charles Dow's "Confirmation" Theory to Bonds

Updated: November 22, 2019

In a nutshell, Charles Dow's famous theory says that the Dow Jones Transportation Average and the Dow Jones Industrial Average must go up or down together -- to "confirm" a bull or bear market. But can you apply this theory to markets like bonds? Yes. Watch our Interest Rates Pro Service editor explain how.

Fibonacci Numbers and Current Picture in U.S. Treasury Bonds

Updated: November 21, 2019

Long- and short-term market charts are often filled with Fibonacci relationships. Learn how this applies to the current price pattern of U.S. 30-Year Treasury Bonds. These two charts are instructive...

How to Add "Certainty" to Your Elliott Wave Forecasts

Updated: October 16, 2019

All market forecasting is… well, forecasting. Meaning, there are no guarantees. Elliott wave analysis is not fool-proof, either. Still, see if this tip from our Head of Global Research helps you add confidence to your wave counts.

Can U.S. Financial Authorities Prevent a Bear Market?

Updated: October 15, 2019

The widespread notion persists that central banks hold a large sway over financial markets. No less than the chief economist of a major global bank just expressed that view. EWI's analysts argue otherwise. Here's why it's unwise to view the Fed or other financial authorities as a "safety net" for stock investors...

How Bonds Help You to Forecast Stock Market Volatility

Updated: October 4, 2019

Stocks and bonds go together like milk and cookies: When stocks rally, bonds fall -- and vice versa. At least, that's what you often hear in the news. The reality is a bit more complex. Watch our Interest Rates Pro Service editor show you important details about the stocks-bonds correlation -- and also, how to forecast the stock market by looking at bonds.

Spotting a "Tired" Look in the U.S. Long Bond

Updated: September 17, 2019

Many observers of the U.S. government bond market expected "concerns about the global economy" to continue to "fuel" a persistent rally. Those economic worries are still making headlines, but something has happened with the rally in 30-year Treasuries. Take a look at these two charts...

Europe's Bonds: Poster Child for "Irrational Herding"

Updated: September 5, 2019

It's hard to believe but investors today still herd just like they did a 100 or 300 years ago. Watch our monthly Global Market Perspective contributor illustrate this point by showing you recent activity in the European bond markets.

30-Year Treasuries: "3rd of a 3rd" Vs. Now

Updated: September 4, 2019

The price action of the 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds had been on a tear in mid-summer -- rising nearly every day. Now, a shift has taken place. Get our insights as you take a look at this chart...

How to Tell a Market's Trend at a Glance

Updated: August 28, 2019

Most methods of technical analysis, including Elliott waves, are visual. To gauge the trend, you LOOK at prices and how they relate to your chosen indicators. But there is an even simpler way. Watch the editor of our Interest Rates Pro Service show you how. (Bonus: You'll also get our latest on the "inverted yield curve," the boogeyman you hear so much about in the news lately.)

Watch: Bond Yields Also Follow Elliott Waves

Updated: August 6, 2019

On these pages, we've shown before that the Fed, when deciding on the direction of the rates, follows the yields in the bond market. But what do yields follow? You got it: Elliott wave patterns. Watch as the editor of our Interest Rates Pro Service explains more.

The Fed: Will They, or Will They Not?

Updated: July 30, 2019

Is there a more definitive way to forecast what the Fed might do about interest rates than looking at "fundamentals"? We believe, there is. This is the price of the 30-year U.S. Treasury Bond...

Trading Bonds: Watch Futures (price) or Yields?

Updated: July 17, 2019

When it comes to the bond market, Jordan Kotick is a "pro's pro" -- a former bond trader, economist and Head of Cross Asset Strategy. He says, "Watch Price or Yields?" is a question he hears repeatedly. Watch and listen to his answer to that question.

Worried About the Fed? Don’t Be -- Here’s Why

Updated: July 10, 2019

Millions of investors analyze the Fed's every word. But do central banks control financial markets? It's time to take a close look at the data.

U.S. Treasuries: “Most Crowded Trade.” Too Crowded?

Updated: June 20, 2019

Investors have been expressing extreme enthusiasm for bonds. Is a turning point nigh? Chart price patterns are a useful aide in figuring out the answer...

Who -- or What -- Is LEADING the Fed?

Updated: June 19, 2019

“What will the Fed do?” That is the wrong question – the real issue is, who (or what) the Fed will follow. Watch this Chart of the Day to see the answer for yourself.

The Before and After of the Big Move in 10-year Treasury Notes

Updated: May 24, 2019

Who was prepared for the big bullish move in Treasury Notes on May 22-23 ... before it happened? See the answer for yourself onscreen right now, in Chart of the Day.

April Lows, May Highs in Treasuries: What's Next?

Updated: May 23, 2019

Dana Weeks talks to EWI Analyst Jordan Kotick about the April low in Treasuries, how to follow the yield curve, and exactly which Treasury instrument he's got his eye on now.

The Junk Bond Market's Message is Loud and Clear

Updated: May 16, 2019

Investor sentiment in the junk-bond market usually correlates with stock market sentiment – and major reversals in both. This chart and commentary provides you with insights.

Volatility: "Remember me?"

Updated: April 18, 2019

In this April Financial Forecast excerpt video, EWI's Robert Folsom shows you a compelling picture of today's complacency among bond market investors. Watch it, and draw your own conclusions. Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin-top:0in; mso-para-margin-right:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:8.0pt; mso-para-margin-left:0in; line-height:107%; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;}

Will Global Rate Shifts Come to the Treasury Market?

Updated: April 4, 2019

In his interview with Dana Weeks, Jordan Kotick looks to major bond market trends abroad for what may be next in the U.S. Treasuries market.

Your "Single Most Reliable Indicator" for Market Turns

Updated: April 2, 2019

This indicator helps to keep you ahead of turns in stocks, bonds, gold, oil and other financial markets. Learn about it, and see two bond charts which provide a historic example of how this "reliable" signal works...

Fed Re-Examines Its Own Ability to Control Inflation: What Next?

Updated: April 1, 2019

Why does the Fed keep missing its inflation "target"? Here's a clue: $10 Trillion in debt outstanding. See what this looks like, in Chart of the Day.

"Inverted Yield Curve" -- What It Is, Why It Matters

Updated: March 25, 2019

Headlines scream about the inverted yield curve. Yet, in his chart-packed explanation, EWI’s Jordan Kotick gives you a context you won’t find elsewhere.

Jordan Kotick on the Fed, Monetary Policy, and “Data Dependent”

Updated: March 20, 2019

Dana Weeks speaks with Jordan Kotick on the real relevance of all the headlines about the Federal Reserve, and the larger Treasuries market.

The Market Wasn't Surprised by What the Fed Didn't Do

Updated: March 20, 2019

Who (or what) drives interest rates? Most investors, the financial media and Wall Street assume "the Fed does." Now see the crystal-clear facts and evidence that show otherwise.

"Outright Insanity" on Display in the Global Bond Market

Updated: March 7, 2019

Our Global Market Perspective has noted that "we've seen some bizarre behavior among bond market participants in recent years, but the current thirst to buy [these] debt instruments wins the prize." Find out what the Global Market Perspective is talking about as you look at this revealing chart...

Busted Myth: “Fed Controls Economy” and “Manipulates Markets”

Updated: February 12, 2019

There's a widespread belief that the Fed holds the levers which guide the economy and maneuvers markets. But the evidence shows that this is simply not the case. These two charts speak for themselves...

This Investment Straddles "A $1 Trillion Powder Keg"

Updated: February 1, 2019

Did you know that Enron's bonds enjoyed an "investment grade" rating just four days before it went bankrupt? Unfortunately true. And, today, other companies and their bonds sit atop "a $1 trillion powder keg." Learn why...

Bond Market Volatility: Has the Psychology Shifted?

Updated: January 14, 2019

EWI's Interest Rate analyst Jordan Kotick shows the "Financial Stress Index," and explains the sudden burst of volatility in the Treasuries market.

Rate Spikes and Crises: Here We Go Again

Updated: January 7, 2019

Interest rates make a lot of headlines these days. We find important correlations between the rates and the overall health of the stock market and economy, too. See the correlations in this chart pulled directly from our brand new January Elliott Wave Financial Forecast. You won't find it anywhere else.

In 2018, Why Did Bonds AND Stocks Fall... TOGETHER?

Updated: December 28, 2018

The chart you're about to see shows you an incredible fact: 90% of 70 asset classes fell in 2018, the most since 1901 (data: Deutsche Bank).

Want to Know the Fed’s Next Move? Pay Attention to This Signal

Updated: December 28, 2018

Many might think that the “reality” in question is that “higher interest rates are bad for the stock market.” But that’s not what this story is about. There is a different reality that Fed has continued to ignore for at least two decades.

The Inverted Yield Curve: What It Is and Why It Matters

Updated: December 20, 2018

Treasury yields may soon turn "not normal," otherwise known as the inverted yield curve. This clear and compelling interview with EWI's Jordan Kotick shows you why it really does matter.

The Fed's "Financial Frailty" Raises This Important Question

Updated: December 18, 2018

Do you have faith in the Fed? If so, a look at the central bank's portfolio might prompt second thoughts. Find out why, plus take a look at two charts which show you who is really in charge of the trend in interest rates.

Stocks’ Seasonal Tendencies: Why Context is Key

Updated: November 28, 2018

"Sell in May and go away." "Santa Claus rally." These are just two sayings that have to do with the stock market's seasonal tendencies. But, investors need to know more. Here are insights that EWI recently offered to subscribers...

Look at This Fast, Dramatic Change in Investors’ Mindset

Updated: November 26, 2018

The yield spread between junk and investment-grade bonds can provide a clue about what's ahead for risk-assets as a whole. Learn why -- plus, take a look at a chart which reveals the mindset of investors.

Investors Can Relax About Rising Interest Rates – Here’s Why

Updated: November 14, 2018

Can interest rates rise to the point that the stock market falls? Does it even matter? See our charts for fact-based answers.

The Fed: Is There Such a Thing as a "Neutral" Rate Policy?

Updated: November 5, 2018

Our analyst Murray Gunn says "The Fed doesn’t control the economy." Now see his evidence -- namely, a 40-plus year chart of GDP and the Fed Funds rate.

Today's Headline: “Plunge in Bond Prices”

Updated: October 3, 2018

The coming round of news stories will say that "30-year Treasury Bond prices hit new low!" Yet you can see how Elliott wave analysis anticipated that new low long before it became a reality.

Rising Bond Yields Didn’t “Sting” Our Subscribers

Updated: September 26, 2018

The biggest turn in decades arrived in Treasury Bonds and Notes in mid-2016. A clear Elliott Wave Pattern told the real story about what was just ahead. See the chart and quotes for yourself in Chart of the Day.

Will the Fed’s Rate Hikes Choke the Stock Market Rally?

Updated: September 25, 2018

Millions of investors analyze the Fed's every word. But do central banks control financial markets? It's time to take a close look at the data.

Bonds, Price, Yields: Time to “Shop for rates”?

Updated: September 24, 2018

Yields are on the move. That seems like recent news, yet check out the forecast from two-plus years ago that anticipated today’s interest rate headlines.

The Anatomy of a Credit Crunch

Updated: September 11, 2018

A "credit crisis" doesn't start everyplace at once -- it usually begins in a single country. See for yourself how financial markets in Turkey are imploding with stunning speed.

Should You Worry About the Flattening Yield Curve?

Updated: September 5, 2018

Do a search of "flattening yield curve," and you’re likely to see many results about how this villain threatens the stock market. How worried should you be?

Chicago's Three-Ring-Circus of Over Optimism

Updated: August 30, 2018

Chicago's pension funds have a $28 BILLION shortfall. Their "solution" includes investing borrowed money in stocks. See this three-ring circus of over-optimism for yourself.

Junk Bonds: No One Expects Volatility… Here’s Why YOU Should

Updated: August 14, 2018

Ironically, financial markets are most risky when they appear to be the least so. With that in mind, let's sift through some "junk," with the aid of this chart.

Dreaming of a “Comfortable Retirement” on a Public Pension?

Updated: August 7, 2018

Many employees of state and local governments in the U.S. are expecting a financially "comfortable" retirement. But, a big shock likely awaits. Here's a sobering perspective.

What the Bond Market Is Whispering About the Next "Big Event"

Updated: July 27, 2018

Keep an eye on the bond market: It's a gauge of social mood swings. If the swing is big enough, the seismic change that follows affects everyone.

The Big Picture and Short Story in Treasuries, Part II

Updated: May 25, 2018

In September 2017, were you ready for the 8-month-long fall in Treasury Notes? Are you ready now for another trend reversal? See this chart...

How the Danger of Debt Looms Large

Updated: May 8, 2018

High-debt levels combined with rising rates means increasing financial pain for borrowers. The eventual result is an all-out credit collapse.See a chart that suggests a debt implosion may be closer than many observers realize.

Will Rising Bond Yields Send Stock Prices Tumbling?

Updated: April 26, 2018

The financial press has recently been saying that rising bond yields have been creating turmoil for the stock market. But, is there a "cause and effect" relationship between bond yields and the stock market? Check out this research.

The Big Picture -- and the Short Story -- in Treasury Bonds

Updated: April 25, 2018

Recent headlines scream 'Treasury yields 3 percent!!' Now see the chart and forecast showing that this trend has been unfolding for some time.

Why Most Investors Stay Stuck One Step Behind the Market

Updated: April 20, 2018

"Credit rating agencies and the subprime crisis" was such a hot topic 10 years ago, after the stock market crash, that it now has its own Wikipedia page. Many mistakes have been corrected since then. But one flaw remains.

Are Pension Funds Embracing Too Much Risk?

Updated: March 8, 2018

Alarming: This huge pension fund loses 5% of its assets in just 11 trading days. Is the worst yet to arrive? According to EWI's analysis, ALL investors need to learn how to get "financially safe."

Should You "Fret" Over the New Fed Chair's Possible Actions?

Updated: February 28, 2018

The mainstream financial press analyzes every word of the Fed's discussions about interest rates. But the evidence shows that the U.S. central bank does not lead on rates. These two charts are revealing.

U.S. Treasury Bonds: A Sentiment Reversal From Mid-December

Updated: February 23, 2018

Since the peak in September 2017, T-Bond futures prices have recently fallen hard -- now see the unfolding (and telling) reversal in sentiment among two trader groups.

Why These "Safety-Minded" Investors Are Probably in for a Shock

Updated: February 16, 2018

If you think bonds are a "safe" alternative to stocks, think again. History shows that bonds can go through wild swings like stocks. Look at these two charts .

Find Out Who Leads the Way on Interest Rates (…It's NOT the Fed)

Updated: January 29, 2018

The mainstream financial press analyzes every word of the Fed's discussions about interest rates. But it's a myth that the U.S. central bank determines the direction of rates. These two charts are revealing.

Why to Beware of "Bondmaggedon"

Updated: January 12, 2018

See what a generational change in trend looks like -- plus a preview of what may be next in Treasury yields.

Look Who's Pressing Bullish Bets on U.S. Treasury Bonds

Updated: December 13, 2017

Most investors extrapolate financial trends into the future. So, they are usually unprepared when the trend changes. Making matters worse, they also usually miss significant countertrend moves. Let's take a look at the bond market.

Junk Kisses the Bull Market Goodbye

Updated: December 13, 2017

A classic pattern signals a trend reversal in high-yield debt: See the clear warning for yourself.

Credit Default Swaps: “Where Are They Now?”

Updated: December 4, 2017

If you remember, credit default swaps were at the heart of the financial crisis, so doing a bit of a “Where are they now?” investigation today is more than relevant.

Market Myth #4: Interest Rates Drive Stock Prices

Updated: November 21, 2017

Think the Fed's interest rates control the stock market? Watch as Matt Lampert shows you how to bust this market myth in 2 minutes, using real-world examples from Robert Prechter's Socionomic Theory of Finance.

Are All Bonds EQUALLY Low Risk?

Updated: November 21, 2017

The junk-to-treasury spread recently closed to ZERO, for the first time EVER. Wall Street says "no big deal" -- now see for yourself how BIG this is.

Big Default, Small Default: Tests of Confidence in the Global Debt Market

Updated: November 20, 2017

What happens when HIGH consumer confidence joins LOW savings See and hear the answer right now

US Treasury Bonds Are Flashing Red Alert Again

Updated: November 9, 2017

Who "controls" interest rates? Wall Street thinks it knows, but see our answer for yourself.

What Happens When the Fed FINALLY Reduces Its $4.5 Trillion Balance Sheet?

Updated: October 4, 2017

The Federal Reserve announced last month that they would start to reduce their $4.5 trillion balance sheet in October, thereby starting the process we call Quantitative Tightening (QT)...

What Does "Desperate Complacency" Look Like? See For Yourself...

Updated: September 14, 2017

The "Term Premium" for bonds was below zero for decades. Not now: See why markets are ripe for an historic moment.

Believe Your Own Eyes: Central Banks FOLLOW the Market

Updated: September 14, 2017

The longstanding myth is, the interest rate market follows the lead of the central bank. Now see the facts for yourself.

Why Speculators Should Keep a Close Eye on the Bond Market

Updated: September 8, 2017

Bonds are generally considered far less risky than the stock market. That's a big reason why flows into bond mutual funds and ETFs have been substantial in the past two years. But there's a major reason to be wary of the bond market. See for yourself.

Europe: How Bond Investors Get Wiped Out

Updated: August 25, 2017

Wipe out! That's what can happen when investors reach for yield in high-risk debt instruments. See a stunning European example.

President Trump and ... the Yield Curve?

Updated: August 25, 2017

This chart offers a completely different take on the question of why President Trump's approval is falling.

Jackson (W)Hole Lotta Hype

Updated: August 24, 2017

This week, the great and the good from central banks around the world gather in Jackson Hole, Wyoming for the annual Kansas City Fed Economic Policy Symposium, and the world's financial media will hang on every word in the hope that something meaningful will be said...

Why the Bond Market Should Be Watching Tesla

Updated: August 22, 2017

Tesla's share price at an all-time high, its junk bond yield at a record low. Today's investor appetite for risk is strong indeed...

Bank of Canada Hike: Surprised? You shouldn't be.

Updated: July 13, 2017

Grabbing the headlines today is the Bank of Canada's first interest rate hike in seven years. Speculation amongst conventional economists has now turned to whether they will continue to hike rates. We have a simple answer to that question: watch the market.

This is Why Municipal Bonds Are No "Day at the Beach"

Updated: July 5, 2017

Even during a national economic expansion, many U.S. municipalities are financially troubled. "Two out of every three states took in less tax revenue than expected this year." This chart of muni bond yield spreads will make you wonder about the future.

Fed Week: One and Done?

Updated: June 13, 2017

Whenever the Fed makes its scheduled interest rates announcement, it's almost always an exciting moment in the markets. But, for an objective guidance on future Fed actions, keep calm ... and follow market rates.

Municipal Bonds: Still "on Track for a Train Wreck"

Updated: June 12, 2017

The head of credit research for a municipal-bond management firm just commented: "We haven't seen this in a modern state before." He was talking about Illinois' deep fiscal trouble. Look at the eye-brow-raising credit spread.

Why Renewed Danger Lurks in the U.S. Leveraged Loan Market

Updated: June 7, 2017

In investing, one rule of thumb tells you that the higher the return, the higher the risk. Today, one high-yield debt instrument that was at the forefront of the 2007-2009 financial crisis has reached a new, dangerous milestone. We're sounding the alarm -- again.

Higher Interest Rates: "Good" for the U.S. Dollar?

Updated: June 6, 2017

Financial news networks spend untold hours debating with their guests as to whether interest rates will rise or fall -- and the effect that will have on the currency. But what if they argued ... over nothing? See this chart and analysis from Murray Gunn and decide for yourself.

Debt, Politics, and Russia: A "Spike" Dead Ahead?

Updated: May 17, 2017

Charts like this one show that markets can anticipate huge shifts in broad psychology: Another dangerous spike may be just around the bend.

Bonds: What Hedge Funds' "Record Reversal" Tells You

Updated: May 17, 2017

Maxwell Edison may have majored in medicine, as the Beatles sang, but many of the "brainiacs" on Wall Street are hedge fund managers. Even so, their performance record at key market turns often leaves a lot to be desired. See this eye-opening bond market chart.

Recall This Bond Trader Chart? Here's What Happened

Updated: April 25, 2017

Our three recent Treasury Bond charts combine to show you trader sentiment, price action and important near-term turns and trends.

What to Expect for Interest Rates During Deflation

Updated: April 7, 2017

The best time to prepare for a major financial change is before it happens. With that in mind, Elliott Wave International has been preparing subscribers for what we see around the corner by reviewing what has happened in the past regarding interest rates.

Bond Traders And Sentiment Reversal: Here's What It Looks Like

Updated: March 23, 2017

Two trader groups habitually on opposite sides of the market are at it again: See what past extremes say to the present trend.

Why the Fed's Rate Hike Means Nothing to the Stock Market

Updated: March 17, 2017

The Fed just announced a 0.25% hike of its benchmark rate -- the second such move in the past three months. A long-held Wall Street belief is that higher rates mean a downturn in stock market prices. Let's put that belief to a test.

What Could Follow the End of the 70-Year Rate Cycle?

Updated: February 22, 2017

Here's a chart you won't see elsewhere: Bob Prechter's analysis and observations, depicted visually in the 70-year interest rate cycle. If the symmetry holds, it suggests that the time to come could include years of crisis, Deflation, Depression and possible World War.

Why You Should Be Cautious About Credit Ratings

Updated: January 17, 2017

If you count on standard credit rating agencies for timely warnings, you might find yourself "behind the 8-ball." Time and again, downgrades have occurred after the damage has already been done. Now is the time to protect your portfolio.

How Bond Investors Were Fooled Twice

Updated: January 9, 2017

Most investors extrapolate financial trends into the future. So, they are usually unprepared when the trend changes. Making matters worse, they also usually miss significant countertrend moves. Let's take a look at the bond market.

Do Interest Rates Follow the Federal Reserve Or Do Interest Rates Lead and the Fed Follows?

Updated: October 28, 2015

What comes first? See the evidence on these three charts for yourself in Episode 4 of the Elliott Wave Pillars Series.

Does the Federal Reserve Drive the Stock Market Trend?

Updated: February 25, 2015

Millions of investors analyze the Fed's every word. But do central banks control financial markets? It's time to take a close look at the data.
97 Results