Updated: February 12, 2019There's a widespread belief that the Fed holds the levers which guide the economy and maneuvers markets. But the evidence shows that this is simply not the case. These two charts speak for themselves...
Updated: February 1, 2019Did you know that Enron's bonds enjoyed an "investment grade" rating just four days before it went bankrupt? Unfortunately true. And, today, other companies and their bonds sit atop "a $1 trillion powder keg." Learn why...
Updated: January 14, 2019EWI's Interest Rate analyst Jordan Kotick shows the "Financial Stress Index," and explains the sudden burst of volatility in the Treasuries market.
Updated: January 7, 2019Interest rates make a lot of headlines these days. We find important correlations between the rates and the overall health of the stock market and economy, too. See the correlations in this chart pulled directly from our brand new January Elliott Wave Financial Forecast. You won't find it anywhere else.
Updated: December 28, 2018The chart you're about to see shows you an incredible fact: 90% of 70 asset classes fell in 2018, the most since 1901 (data: Deutsche Bank).
Updated: December 28, 2018Many might think that the “reality” in question is that “higher interest rates are bad for the stock market.” But that’s not what this story is about. There is a different reality that Fed has continued to ignore for at least two decades.
Updated: December 20, 2018Treasury yields may soon turn "not normal," otherwise known as the inverted yield curve. This clear and compelling interview with EWI's Jordan Kotick shows you why it really does matter.
Updated: December 18, 2018Do you have faith in the Fed? If so, a look at the central bank's portfolio might prompt second thoughts. Find out why, plus take a look at two charts which show you who is really in charge of the trend in interest rates.
Updated: November 28, 2018"Sell in May and go away." "Santa Claus rally." These are just two sayings that have to do with the stock market's seasonal tendencies. But, investors need to know more. Here are insights that EWI recently offered to subscribers...
Updated: November 26, 2018The yield spread between junk and investment-grade bonds can provide a clue about what's ahead for risk-assets as a whole. Learn why -- plus, take a look at a chart which reveals the mindset of investors.
Updated: November 14, 2018Can interest rates rise to the point that the stock market falls? Does it even matter? See our charts for fact-based answers.
Updated: November 5, 2018Our analyst Murray Gunn says "The Fed doesn’t control the economy." Now see his evidence -- namely, a 40-plus year chart of GDP and the Fed Funds rate.
Updated: October 3, 2018The coming round of news stories will say that "30-year Treasury Bond prices hit new low!" Yet you can see how Elliott wave analysis anticipated that new low long before it became a reality.
Updated: September 26, 2018The biggest turn in decades arrived in Treasury Bonds and Notes in mid-2016. A clear Elliott Wave Pattern told the real story about what was just ahead. See the chart and quotes for yourself in Chart of the Day.
Updated: September 25, 2018Millions of investors analyze the Fed's every word. But do central banks control financial markets? It's time to take a close look at the data.
Updated: September 24, 2018Yields are on the move. That seems like recent news, yet check out the forecast from two-plus years ago that anticipated today’s interest rate headlines.
Updated: September 11, 2018A "credit crisis" doesn't start everyplace at once -- it usually begins in a single country. See for yourself how financial markets in Turkey are imploding with stunning speed.
Updated: September 5, 2018Do a search of "flattening yield curve," and you’re likely to see many results about how this villain threatens the stock market. How worried should you be?
Updated: August 30, 2018Chicago's pension funds have a $28 BILLION shortfall. Their "solution" includes investing borrowed money in stocks. See this three-ring circus of over-optimism for yourself.
Updated: August 14, 2018Ironically, financial markets are most risky when they appear to be the least so. With that in mind, let's sift through some "junk," with the aid of this chart.
Updated: August 7, 2018Many employees of state and local governments in the U.S. are expecting a financially "comfortable" retirement. But, a big shock likely awaits. Here's a sobering perspective.
Updated: July 27, 2018Keep an eye on the bond market: It's a gauge of social mood swings. If the swing is big enough, the seismic change that follows affects everyone.
Updated: May 25, 2018In September 2017, were you ready for the 8-month-long fall in Treasury Notes? Are you ready now for another trend reversal? See this chart...
Updated: May 8, 2018High-debt levels combined with rising rates means increasing financial pain for borrowers. The eventual result is an all-out credit collapse.See a chart that suggests a debt implosion may be closer than many observers realize.
Updated: April 26, 2018The financial press has recently been saying that rising bond yields have been creating turmoil for the stock market. But, is there a "cause and effect" relationship between bond yields and the stock market? Check out this research.
Updated: April 25, 2018Recent headlines scream 'Treasury yields 3 percent!!' Now see the chart and forecast showing that this trend has been unfolding for some time.
Updated: April 20, 2018"Credit rating agencies and the subprime crisis" was such a hot topic 10 years ago, after the stock market crash, that it now has its own Wikipedia page. Many mistakes have been corrected since then. But one flaw remains.
Updated: March 8, 2018Alarming: This huge pension fund loses 5% of its assets in just 11 trading days. Is the worst yet to arrive? According to EWI's analysis, ALL investors need to learn how to get "financially safe."
Updated: February 28, 2018The mainstream financial press analyzes every word of the Fed's discussions about interest rates. But the evidence shows that the U.S. central bank does not lead on rates. These two charts are revealing.
Updated: February 23, 2018Since the peak in September 2017, T-Bond futures prices have recently fallen hard -- now see the unfolding (and telling) reversal in sentiment among two trader groups.
Updated: February 16, 2018If you think bonds are a "safe" alternative to stocks, think again. History shows that bonds can go through wild swings like stocks. Look at these two charts .
Updated: January 29, 2018The mainstream financial press analyzes every word of the Fed's discussions about interest rates. But it's a myth that the U.S. central bank determines the direction of rates. These two charts are revealing.
Updated: January 12, 2018See what a generational change in trend looks like -- plus a preview of what may be next in Treasury yields.
Updated: December 13, 2017Most investors extrapolate financial trends into the future. So, they are usually unprepared when the trend changes. Making matters worse, they also usually miss significant countertrend moves. Let's take a look at the bond market.
Updated: December 13, 2017A classic pattern signals a trend reversal in high-yield debt: See the clear warning for yourself.
Updated: December 4, 2017If you remember, credit default swaps were at the heart of the financial crisis, so doing a bit of a “Where are they now?” investigation today is more than relevant.
Updated: November 21, 2017Think the Fed's interest rates control the stock market? Watch as Matt Lampert shows you how to bust this market myth in 2 minutes, using real-world examples from Robert Prechter's Socionomic Theory of Finance.
Updated: November 21, 2017The junk-to-treasury spread recently closed to ZERO, for the first time EVER. Wall Street says "no big deal" -- now see for yourself how BIG this is.
Updated: November 20, 2017What happens when HIGH consumer confidence joins LOW savings See and hear the answer right now
Updated: November 9, 2017Who "controls" interest rates? Wall Street thinks it knows, but see our answer for yourself.
Updated: October 4, 2017The Federal Reserve announced last month that they would start to reduce their $4.5 trillion balance sheet in October, thereby starting the process we call Quantitative Tightening (QT)...
Updated: September 14, 2017The "Term Premium" for bonds was below zero for decades. Not now: See why markets are ripe for an historic moment.
Updated: September 14, 2017The longstanding myth is, the interest rate market follows the lead of the central bank. Now see the facts for yourself.
Updated: September 8, 2017Bonds are generally considered far less risky than the stock market. That's a big reason why flows into bond mutual funds and ETFs have been substantial in the past two years. But there's a major reason to be wary of the bond market. See for yourself.
Updated: August 25, 2017Wipe out! That's what can happen when investors reach for yield in high-risk debt instruments. See a stunning European example.
Updated: August 25, 2017This chart offers a completely different take on the question of why President Trump's approval is falling.
Updated: August 24, 2017This week, the great and the good from central banks around the world gather in Jackson Hole, Wyoming for the annual Kansas City Fed Economic Policy Symposium, and the world's financial media will hang on every word in the hope that something meaningful will be said...
Updated: August 22, 2017Tesla's share price at an all-time high, its junk bond yield at a record low. Today's investor appetite for risk is strong indeed...
Updated: July 13, 2017Grabbing the headlines today is the Bank of Canada's first interest rate hike in seven years. Speculation amongst conventional economists has now turned to whether they will continue to hike rates. We have a simple answer to that question: watch the market.
Updated: July 5, 2017Even during a national economic expansion, many U.S. municipalities are financially troubled. "Two out of every three states took in less tax revenue than expected this year." This chart of muni bond yield spreads will make you wonder about the future.
Updated: June 13, 2017Whenever the Fed makes its scheduled interest rates announcement, it's almost always an exciting moment in the markets. But, for an objective guidance on future Fed actions, keep calm ... and follow market rates.
Updated: June 12, 2017The head of credit research for a municipal-bond management firm just commented: "We haven't seen this in a modern state before." He was talking about Illinois' deep fiscal trouble. Look at the eye-brow-raising credit spread.
Updated: June 7, 2017In investing, one rule of thumb tells you that the higher the return, the higher the risk. Today, one high-yield debt instrument that was at the forefront of the 2007-2009 financial crisis has reached a new, dangerous milestone. We're sounding the alarm -- again.
Updated: June 6, 2017Financial news networks spend untold hours debating with their guests as to whether interest rates will rise or fall -- and the effect that will have on the currency. But what if they argued ... over nothing? See this chart and analysis from Murray Gunn and decide for yourself.
Updated: May 17, 2017Charts like this one show that markets can anticipate huge shifts in broad psychology: Another dangerous spike may be just around the bend.
Updated: May 17, 2017Maxwell Edison may have majored in medicine, as the Beatles sang, but many of the "brainiacs" on Wall Street are hedge fund managers. Even so, their performance record at key market turns often leaves a lot to be desired. See this eye-opening bond market chart.
Updated: April 25, 2017Our three recent Treasury Bond charts combine to show you trader sentiment, price action and important near-term turns and trends.
Updated: April 7, 2017The best time to prepare for a major financial change is before it happens. With that in mind, Elliott Wave International has been preparing subscribers for what we see around the corner by reviewing what has happened in the past regarding interest rates.
Updated: March 23, 2017Two trader groups habitually on opposite sides of the market are at it again: See what past extremes say to the present trend.
Updated: March 17, 2017The Fed just announced a 0.25% hike of its benchmark rate -- the second such move in the past three months. A long-held Wall Street belief is that higher rates mean a downturn in stock market prices. Let's put that belief to a test.
Updated: February 22, 2017Here's a chart you won't see elsewhere: Bob Prechter's analysis and observations, depicted visually in the 70-year interest rate cycle. If the symmetry holds, it suggests that the time to come could include years of crisis, Deflation, Depression and possible World War.
Updated: January 17, 2017If you count on standard credit rating agencies for timely warnings, you might find yourself "behind the 8-ball." Time and again, downgrades have occurred after the damage has already been done. Now is the time to protect your portfolio.
Updated: January 9, 2017Most investors extrapolate financial trends into the future. So, they are usually unprepared when the trend changes. Making matters worse, they also usually miss significant countertrend moves. Let's take a look at the bond market.
Updated: October 28, 2015What comes first? See the evidence on these three charts for yourself in Episode 4 of the Elliott Wave Pillars Series.
Updated: February 25, 2015Millions of investors analyze the Fed's every word. But do central banks control financial markets? It's time to take a close look at the data.