The psychology of the prior major top returns
by Bob Stokes
Updated: August 11, 2023
There’s a reason why the phrase “don’t try to catch a falling knife” became a cliché in the world of stock market investing.
As many investors know, stocks which have fallen hard can continue to fall hard.
However, investors sometimes try their luck anyway — even when the risks are widely known.
For example, Bed Bath & Beyond was selling for pennies when it filed for bankruptcy in April. The stock had fallen a long way down from its January 2021 high. Even so meme stock investors jumped in and sent the stock price higher by 728% from early May through mid-July.
This is mentioned — not to encourage penny stock investing — but to show the current degree of abandon in the stock market.
Tupperware is another case in point of revived animal spirits toward meme stocks.
As an August 3 Entrepreneur.com headline says:
Tupperware Surges Amid Meme Stock Trend…
Our August Elliott Wave Financial Forecast delved into the details with this chart and commentary:
Tupperware had gained a whopping 3256% from March 2020 [to January 2021]. [The stock] then declined 99%.
The inset on the chart shows [its] recent performance. Tupperware rose 869% from July 19 to August 1.
As our August Elliott Wave Financial Forecast also notes:
Tupperware’s surge comes even as “the firm has been expressing concerns about possibly going out of business.” A return to the psychology of the prior major top during [an Elliott] wave rally is the only logical explanation.
The return of this extreme bullish psychology is just one sign that the overall rally in the stock market may be on shaky ground.
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